ICC World Cup Semi-Final Scenario
There are currently nine teams vying for one of the final four spots in the ongoing ICC Men’s ODI World Cup 2023. The competition to secure a spot in the semi-finals is fierce. Only Bangladesh (six losses in seven games) is now unable to go past the knockout round. Since no team has formally declared their intention to play, all four seats are still open. Despite winning the first six games in a row, India (12 points from six games) is mathematically still able to miss out on a spot in the last four, even though they are close to becoming the first team to make it to the semifinals.
Ahead of the start of the November round of the ODI World Cup 2023, here’s a look at what the remaining nine teams need to do to qualify for the semi-finals:
With three games left against Sri Lanka (November 2), South Africa (November 5), and the Netherlands (November 12), India, with 12 points from their first six games, will advance to the round of four. The Men in Blue will finish first in the points standings if India wins all three games.
With 10 points from six games, South Africa will go to the ODI World Cup semi-finals if they win two of their next three games. Afghanistan will also be satisfied with a single victory if they lose each of their final three games.
The Kiwis sit third in the points table with eight points from six games, and if they win their final three games, they will definitely make it into the final four. Even the Kiwis will advance if they win two of their next three games and Afghanistan loses one more.
Australia, the five-time winner, is in a similar position to New Zealand, having collected eight points from six games. They will undoubtedly win three games, and even if Afghanistan loses one of their final three games, two victories will be sufficient to get them through.
From seven games, Pakistan has six points. The Men in Green, aside from winning their past two games handily, will need to pray that New Zealand and Australia lose their final three games; if that happens, Pakistan will automatically qualify. However, Pakistan will be eliminated regardless of what happens if New Zealand, Australia, and South Africa win at least two of their final three games and one more match.
Afghanistan, with six points from six games, is ranked sixth in the standings. If they win three straight, they will advance if either Australia or New Zealand loses their next two games. Afghanistan needs to hope that Australia or New Zealand lose all of their remaining games if they win two.
Sri Lanka sits eighth in the standings with four points from six games played. They will only be assured a spot in the semifinals if they win their next three games and Australia and New Zealand lose the last three games they play. Pakistan, Afghanistan, and the Netherlands must also lose two games minimum in addition to that.
Like Sri Lanka, the Netherlands have four points from six games, and their circumstances are identical. The Men in Orange will advance if New Zealand and Australia lose their final three games and Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Afghanistan lose two or more and win every game.
With two points from six games, the reigning champions sit at the bottom of the standings. If they win all three of their remaining games with a huge margin and New Zealand and Australia lose all three of their games, they will advance to the semi-finals. They also need to hope that Pakistan loses to them by a significant margin and defeats New Zealand by a narrow margin. Afghanistan and Sri Lanka lost all of their remaining games, while the Netherlands won over Afghanistan but lost to India and England. The top two sides with a higher net run rate will advance, with England, Australia, New Zealand, and Pakistan having eight points apiece.